Contractor said my 20-year-old water heater was 'fine' but the math says otherwise

Had a plumber out last week for a slow leak under the utility sink. He glanced at the water heater, tapped it, and said it's got a few more years, no worries. But I pulled the serial number and it's from 2004, so that's 20 years in a damp Atlanta crawlspace. The anode rod is probably dust by now, and I've already had one sediment flush turn brown. He gave me a $4,500 quote to swap it, but also said I could wait, which feels like gambling on a flood in my rental property. I get that he's not trying to upsell, but is anyone else getting told old units are fine when the real risk is a 2am burst? Would you trust the visual check or push for a hard timeline?

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